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Waiting for the Fat Pitch in Poker

There was a very good article in the JULY SFO magazine (a new and quite good financial markets trading publication) that had the same title as this one minus the last two words. The subject discussed was that the last step to becoming a successful trader might very well be the resolve to wait for a specific high-odds setup that you have gotten very good at handling and sit on your hands the rest of the time. This means a lot of watching the market, armed with a trading platform, and doing nothing. 

The article quotes hall-of-famer Ted Williams in revealing his hitting success as following the same strategy. Apparently he had divided the strike zone into 77 baseball-sized cells and would only swing when the ball was pitched at one particular cell that he was good at hitting. He claims in his book (The Science of Hitting) that by sticking to that cell and never swinging at any of the others he was able to achieve his legendary .400 batting average, and that swinging at less desirable pitches would bring his average down to .230, which means a trip to the minors rather than the hall of fame. 

Regardless of the questionable validity of William’s claims (don’t ask me how he avoided striking out looking at the 76 other possible strike pitches or how he could tell exactly where a curve ball would cross the plate), it does make a great analogy for traders – and poker players as well. As a trader I am resolved to wait for the condition I know I can trade profitably and avoid all the other stuff that is pure gambling and I always seem to lose on. 

So how do we take this advice into a poker game and use it to become a better player? It can be implemented in several different ways. The most obvious is in game selection. Poker profits come from playing against inferior competition, period. Waiting for the fat pitch could mean waiting for certain games, game conditions, or even a particular opponent to show up. 

In No-Limit Hold’em cash games, your profits ultimately come from opponents willing to give you their stack when they have only one pair (usually top pair with the best kicker or an overpair). Playing a winning game means you know how not to lose your stack when you have these holdings against two-pair or a set, but are consistently taking your opponents stacks when they have the big pair against your two-pair and set hands. 

So waiting for the fat pitch in No Limit cash games can simply mean playing a patient, no frills game that breaks even (or even loses a little) most of the time while waiting to get all of an opponent’s money in when they have a big pair against your bigger hand. Just don’t get too involved and try to keep the pot small the rest of the time. It can mean the difference between making a living at poker or filling out a job application.